Australian Open Preview
I’m going to start this post with a couple of warnings – 1. Gambling on sports, and yes – tennis is a sport, is illegal in the United States. 2. The Australian Open starts two weeks into the tennis season, and is therefore incredibly hard to predict. Imagine gambling on the NFL this season, not one person would have been able to pick the last four teams standing at the start of the playoffs, let alone in week 2. I guess the main point of warning #2 is that much of the following might be further proof that I’m an idiot…but maybe it will prove otherwise.
To see the draw click here.
- The first thing that is if Roger Federer wants to tie Sampras’ all time Grand Slam Singles Titles Record, he is going to have to be balling right out of the gate. While they are past their primes, Federer will most likely have to face former Grand Slam Champions Carlos Moya and Marat Safin in the 2nd & 3rd Rounds, respectively. Not to mention the top half of his quarter, which includes up and comer Croat Marin Cilic and last summer’s hottest player, Juan Martin del Potro.
- On the opposite, while No. 1 ranked Rafael Nadal will face some stiff competition (it is a Grand Slam after all…), his draw is very favorable compared to Federer’s. It includes some interesting names like Tursonov, Gasquet and Gonzalez; however he must be thrilled that Simon is the highest seed in his quarter. One wild card too look out for in that part of the draw is Gael Monfils, who actually took out Nadal last week in Doha.
- The second quarter (top half, Nadal’s side) is possibly the most intriguing. While Murray is a clear-cut No. 4 in the world, he doesn’t yet have the confidence of fans in the sense that people don’t assume he will advance to the semi’s like they do Nadal, Federer and Djokovic. There doesn’t appear to be a serious threat, but lots of minor ones. Kei Nishikori and Ernestis Gulbis are both in this quarter, unseeded…and let’s be honest, if either of them ended up in the quarters or semis, would you be that surprised? The two top seeds in this quarter are Blake and Tsonga (who had a decent run in 2008 to the finals, you will recall).
- Ultimately, here are my pics – Nadal over Tsonga in the top semi, and Federer over Roddick (who I see escaping his quarter, even with Djokovic in it) in the bottom semi…then, Federer ties Sampras. Wishful thinking? Yes, of course, but who wouldn’t want to see a Nadal/Federer final?
- I wish I had some concrete thoughts on the Women’s draw, but it’s downright impossible to have any. The truth is, the Women’s Draw is about as predictable as the weather in Vermont (for those that don’t know Vermont’s weather, if you don’t like it, just wait five minutes). Wait, I take that back…I’m quite confident that Jankovic will beat 104th ranked Yvonne Muesburger of Austria in the first round. After that, all bets are off!
In all seriousness, has there been a stranger time in Women’s tennis in recent memory. There is not one favorite, especially this early in the season. Last week in Hobart, there was not one seeded player in the Quarterfinals. I guess at this point, Elena Dementieva might be playing the best, as she has won both warm up events (including wins in Sydney over Serena Williams and Dinara Safina). However, betting on Dementieva to perform well in the latter stages of a major is like betting on Peyton Manning to perform well in the NFL Playoffs - it might happen once in awhile, but for the most part you will just be disappointed. On top of that, she is in the same half as both Venus and Serena Williams. At the end of the day I see one of the Williams pitted against Jankovic in the finals, with the Williams sister winning.